Labour Force Survey data in context
Labour Force Survey data published by the Office of National Statistics yesterday shows some recovery in the UK economic inactivity rate, which was estimated at 20.9%. This is still 0.7 percentage points higher than before the covid-19 pandemic. Overall, flows are moving towards employment with more people moving from economic inactivity to unemployment and from unemployment to employment than in the other direction. While those aged 50 to 64 are still the age group with the highest rate of economic inactivity, this group was the main driver of the overall decrease in the last quarter.
What about economic inactivity due to ill health?
Despite the overall decrease in the rate of economic inactivity, the number of people economically inactive due to ill health continues to rise and is now at a record high of 2.58 million.
Meanwhile, around 7.6 million patients in England are waiting for NHS consultant-led treatment having been referred, the highest level since records began in 2007.
The Health Foundation Health in 2040 report projects that 2.5 million more people in England will be living with major illness by 2040, driven by an ageing population. The rate of increase of those living with major illness is predicted to be nine times the rate of increase in the working age population. The disability employment gap increases with age, and data since the pandemic shows that within the working age population, economic inactivity due to ill health continues to increase. 3.5 million working age people are predicted to be living with major illness by 2040.
Implications for the future of health and social care
The next two decades will see a shift in balance in those well enough to work and contribute to government revenues, and those requiring government support, including through NHS care. Record high waiting lists already show that the NHS is not meeting demand. Living with health conditions without optimised care and treatment is likely to impact people’s function and ability to work. But the number of people in this category is unlikely to improve as demand on the NHS is set to increase without a route to more resource.
What can be done?
Policymakers must plan for these changes in demand on health and social care services, and explore funding solutions while anticipating the demographic changes that will impact government revenues.
There is also a need to find routes of supporting the increasing number of people who are economically inactive due to ill health back into the workforce, retain working people living with ill health who are in the workforce and help those looking for work get sustainable employment. Achieving this will require more than policy change and will depend on public messaging, support for employers and healthcare professionals. Most of all, occupational health support needs to reach those 2.58 million people that are economically inactive due to ill health, and people who are employed and at risk of falling out of work due to ill health or currently unemployed that are now flowing into economic inactivity due to ill health.