Will AI displace human labour?

Nelson’s Column, Trafalgar Square, London, January 2024

Concerns about technology displacing human labour have been a recurring theme through history. From the introduction of mechanised production methods during the industrial revolution to changes brought about by the introduction of computers and the internet in more recent decades.

Through history, human labour has to some extent been displaced by technological advancements. In each case this has been followed by increased productivity, economic growth, falling prices in goods and services, increased purchasing power and improved standards of living. Historically, new jobs and even new industries have been cultivated as the role of technology becomes established in the economy. For example, the service sector which is now established as a dominant part of the economy grew out of technological advancements over the past two centuries, through urbanisation, increased income and living standards and globalisation.

What about the future and AI?

Most successful use cases of AI in the workplace I have seen augment rather than displace the human worker who remains central to the workstream. Automating some tasks and moving rate limiting steps away from humans will increase efficiency and drive productivity. In the context where AI does displace a human from end to end in a role, history tells us the broader economic consequences will be positive not negative. What’s important is managing the transition period.

People will need to adapt to working alongside AI. Some will even need to acquire new skills to adapt to a changing jobs market where humans are being displaced by AI. Managing this transition well gives technology the best chance at success and contain any fall out from an inequalities perspective. The benefits of technology are not always evenly distributed across society and preparing for a future where AI is more present in the workplace means individual workers, employers and policy makers need to be one step ahead. At a minimum, this should involve:

1. Education and technical literacy

   A learning culture at an individual or organisational level will help humans adapt to new technologies and integrate AI into their work and lives. Working with and alongside AI through the school and higher education system will be an important foundation for the future workforce. Currently, many institutions are trying to contain or push back on students using AI through education. Arguably, embracing use of AI through education as it becomes more pervasive in the workplace will make graduates more resilient and employable.

2. A balanced approach to regulation

   Regulation should not stifle growth, and throughout history regulation has been slow to catch up with technological advancements, which has helped propel productivity. However, the benefit of hindsight does demonstrate there can be an inequalities fall out from the effects of technology on wage polarisation, education and geographic disparities. Evolving fair labour practices alongside AI should be considered up front, and some active management of the evolution of opportunities as the use of AI becomes more pervasive across workplaces is important.

3. Social safety nets

   Support systems for people affected by job change and displacement due to technological advancement and AI should come into action early. Where temporary financial support is required this should be joined up with job search assistance and retraining, feeding back into educational resources and professional development, aiming to avoid people being left behind.